Evolution For The Energy Market

Evolution For The Energy Market

This is a time of evolution for the Energy Market, both Fossil and renewable. Those of us in Renewables feel a bit like Henry Ford driving his first vehicle, the Quadracycle. Henry had his erstwhile assistant James Bishop bicycling ahead to alert passing carriages and pedestrians of the impending disruption to Horses and carriages of his powered Vehicle. 

There seems to be a push that you are in either Coal / Gas or the renewables camp and not much in between. This is represented by the brutal response of the Coal lobby and in equal measure the ridiculous demand for subsidies from the far left including the Greens and those barnacled to them, all adding fuel to the brutal right of the Abbots of this world.

At the side line Labour saying they will have 50% renewables by 2030 with no plan although probably achievable by the Industry helps nobody. The Labour party have failed renewables miserably by Knee jerk reactions and inept behaviours, Penny Wong being the worst Minister in this space and we will cover that in depth on another day.

Back to the topic, and the public who are paying for all this back and forth are buried as is the truth in his Hatfield’s and McCoy’s style Hill billy battle. This would be funny if the not for that situation of Australians being the ones having to pay for the Politicians inept behaviours.

Our Bias:

We are a privately owned Solar Business, we do not identify at all with the Green party social platforms as we cannot understand who is supposed to pay for every social demand placed upon our society both Green and other. We just want to run our business in the renewable space.

The Hatfield’s played by rhe Right side of Politics (and by no means is this to be confused as the correct side of Politics) has seized on anything being renewable as a left wing welfare dependant rabble and therefore open season.

At the same time the McCoy’s (left) with their renewables had ridiculous subsidies which has inflamed the Hatfield’s (right) Bias.

Historically you cannot argue with what the Hatfield’s say, a classic example was a Classic McCoy play, the 60c feed in Tariff in NSW and similar in other states however NSW was the only gross system and was the largest by far.

This was where Solar Panels were put onto properties and every bit of electricity generated went out of the property onto the Grid, incredibly the NSW Government paid 60c per kWh (Kilowatt Hour) to the Property owner for that electricity (please focus now) and the Government were not paid anything by the power companies for this electricity, it just went out as stone cold a gift of Taxpayers money. Such a scheme cannot ever be understood. NSW Labour sold out their own not in malice but in stupidity, thinking that money could have been spent on within NSW, Schools and Hospitals. As I said this was repeated in SA, Qld and Vic, but not to the same scale, as other States kept a Net system. Thankfully these have been abolished and are being worked through at a staggering cost.

This has been gold to the Hatfield Right Led by Chief Hatfield Tony Abbot who have mounted an all-out attack on our Industry at the expense of accuracy, and it must be said Truth

Our Industryand where we believe it is going.

Point 1.

Firstly, there are no more Government subsidies for Solar, I know you see subsidies referred to everywhere but again there are no, nil, zilch, zip subsidies for Solar. 

What is there?

A renewable energy target. This is paid for by power generators required to have a percentage of their energy Generation by Renewables. Those that don’t, have to buy renewable energy certificates known as LRECS and SRECS, both small scale and large scale generated by installing renewable energy systems.

These RECS are what offset the cost of Solar systems sold to users. I reiterate not one cent of Government money on subsidies. Some are calling this a subsidy and again we will cover this next week

To the cost of Electricity, 45% of the retail price of Electricity is made up of Distribution / Transmission costs, this is a staggering figure and lends its own solution.

The solution is that energy should ideally be generated where it is being used or close by. Grabbing this concept then we really need to consider whether investing in Solar /Wind Farms or Coal /Gas  Power Stations for Energy distribution to the Grid is a long term consideration. Further is the grid itself a long term proposition? See below and think of Computing Power over the past 15 years

Moore’s Law

The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, was that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future. In subsequent years, the pace slowed down a bit, but data density has doubled approximately every 18 months, and this is the current definition of Moore's Law, which Moore himself has blessed.

Most experts, including Moore himself, expect Moore's Law to hold for at least another two decades, which it has.

We now come to think about the direction for renewables, Electricity generation across all forms and usage applying what has happened in the IT industry and what is happening in Solar right now.

Q: Should we be building energy generation plants, wind farms and solar farms?

A: Our view is that this should be done conservatively. We have seen Moore’s law at work in the Solar Industry, the prices have reduced markedly and will continue to do so, either by greater Panel efficiency which happens every year or by the cost of technology reducing, which is happening now

By applying the principles of Moore’s Law clearly within a very short time in 20 years we will be generating significant excess energy from the Sun at the points of use. So much that we will be in surplus with energy being just a commodity. The Holy Grail is storage and that is fast upon us.

We conclude that we need a bipartisan approach to energy in Australia, it is not going to happen While Tony Abbot is Prime Minister, he is trying to run over Henry Ford’s erstwhile ambassador James Bishop with his Horse and Cart loaded with Coal.

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